(November 24-28)The coal market operated weakly.
At ports: Amid rising port inventories and falling coal prices at production areas, the bottom support for coal prices weakened. Meanwhile, downstream demand failed to pick up, leading to reduced sentiment among traders to support prices and increased willingness to ship among some traders, putting downward pressure on coal prices.
In production areas: Although coal mine supply contracted slightly at the end of the month, intermediate users were reluctant to procure, resulting in a significant drop in demand. Additionally, the number of failed auctions at large mines increased, and strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailed in the market. Some coal mines cut prices to stimulate shipments, but the effect was limited, and the overall market remained weak.
Short-term forecast: Coal prices are expected to decline slightly. On the one hand, limited release of end-user demand, continuous accumulation of port inventories, coupled with falling port arrival costs and reduced external procurement prices by major groups, may further push down coal prices. On the other hand, with an upcoming trade fair in the near term, both supply and demand sides are dominated by wait-and-see attitudes and are unlikely to take drastic actions. Furthermore, the market still holds expectations for peak-season demand, which will limit the downside space for coal prices.