Analysis of China's LNG Price Trends (April 27–30, 2026)
Domestic LNG prices in China posted a rally followed by consolidation this week, with imported seaborne LNG leading the gains. The upward trend was driven by the combined impact of supply contraction, rising costs and low inventory levels. Price growth moderated in the mid-to-late week as high prices curbed downstream demand. Supported by cost competitiveness and low inventory, seaborne LNG surged higher, with prices at some receiving terminals breaking the key threshold of RMB 7,000/ton.
1. Early-week surge: Tight supply and rising costs
Pipeline maintenance & low inventory: Maintenance on upstream pipelines tightened domestic gas supply, while inventories at upstream liquefaction plants remained at low levels. Lower spot market circulation directly pushed up ex-factory prices.
Rigid raw material gas cost increase: In the first half of May, the bidding transaction price of feed gas stood at 3.6–4.25 CNY/cubic meter, equivalent to an LNG cost of approximately 5,945–6,887 CNY/ton, forming a firm bottom line for price support at liquefaction plants.
Off-season strength: Despite being in the traditional demand off-season, supply contraction dominated market fundamentals, resulting in a strong price uptrend amid low seasonal demand.
2. Mid-to-late week: High-level consolidation and slowing gains
High prices curb downstream purchasing: Prices climbed rapidly to an unaffordable level for industrial end-users and refueling stations. Market procurement turned cautious, with buyers only purchasing rigid demand and speculative restocking shrinking, leaving limited room for further price increases.
Game between cost and demand: Feed gas bidding prices remained elevated, but downstream affordability weakened. The market entered a phase of high-level consolidation and narrow-range fluctuations.
3. Seaborne LNG sharp rally: Cost advantage plus inventory support
Cost advantage drives substitution: Seaborne LNG boasted obvious cost advantages over domestic produced LNG, expanding its supply coverage to high-priced regions such as East and South China and replacing part of domestic LNG demand.
Strong support from low inventory: LNG inventories at receiving terminals stayed persistently low, and vessel arrivals remained tight. Sellers were reluctant to cut prices and controlled market supply intentionally. Prices at some South China receiving terminals broke 7,000 CNY/ton, hitting a new high for the same period.
4. Market logic summary
Short-term core contradiction: Supply contraction (maintenance + low inventory) outweighed weak off-season demand, making prices easy to rise but hard to fall.
Price ceiling: Downstream affordability capped the upside room, and market prices stabilized due to resistance to high prices in the mid-week.
Structural divergence: Seaborne LNG outperformed domestic LNG, and South China prices were stronger than North China, driven by differences in cost and inventory fundamentals.
5. Market outlook (Mid-to-late May)
Mainly high-level consolidation: There is no fundamental basis for a sharp price decline. Domestic LNG will mostly trade in the range of 5,800–6,500 CNY/ton, while seaborne LNG is expected to hold at 6,800–7,200 CNY/ton.
Key monitoring indicators: Resumption progress of liquefaction plants, LNG vessel arrival volume, and feed gas bidding results. If supply recovery falls short of expectations, staged corrective upside gains are still possible.